This conference addresses key issues such as
global warming, population growth, environment degradation, resource depletion and the
challenges of developing a sustainable energy industry into the next century.
ENERGY FOR THE NEW MILLENIUM - SETTING THE SCENE
From the Century of Achievement to the Century of Change: The Energy
Industries at the Turning Point
Prof Ian Lowe, Griffith Uni
Energy Through the 20th Century: The Economic, Business and Social Drivers
Phil Ruthven, IBISWorld
ENERGY FOR THE 21ST CENTURY
Energy Outlook into the New Millennium – Key Trends and
Determinants
Charles Millsteed, Karen Schneider & Vivek Tulpule - ABARE
Energy and Global Environmental Technology
Mitsuru Takeshita - NEDO
Energy for the New Millennium: Energy Policy, End Use Issues
Bob Alderson - DISR
Photovoltaics for the New Millennium
Prof Martin Green & Stuart Wenham - Uni NSW
ENERGY SUPPLY & RESTRUCTURING
THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES
The Downstream Petroleum Industry – Challenges and Opportunities
Jim Starkey - AIP
Gas Pipelines – New Market Opportunities
Allen Beasley - APIA
Long Term Supply Issues in the National Electricity Market
Tim George & Charlie Macauley - NEMMCO
Regulation for the New Millennium
Joe Dimasi - ACCC
SERVICES & RESTRUCTURED ENERGY
INDUSTRIES
The Performance of Victoria’s Privatised Power Stations
Assoc Prof John Price - Monash Uni
Utility Power Plant – After Market Service, an OEM Perspective
Hans Schultz - Siemens
Forging the Business/IT Power Partnership
William Ehmcke - META Group
Performance Contracting in Facility Development: Geelong Hospital
Experience
Jeremy Bowler - Barwon Health
ENERGY MANAGEMENT
Benefit Cost Analysis of Demand Side Management Programmes in India
Prof B Sudhakara Reddy - Indira Gandhi Inst. for Development
Research
Cascade – The Group Dynamic Boosts Energy Results
Maryanne Walkley - Energy Efficiency Vic
A 2020 Vision for NSW Electricity Supply
Graeme Jessup & Andrew Williamson - SEDA NSW
Green Energy and the Environmental Millennium
Jack Taylor – Office of Sustainable Energy (Qld)
GLOBAL WARMING - CURRENT STATUS
Progress in Climate Science and Its Role in Greenhouse Policy
Graeme Pearman - CSIRO Atmospheric Research
Abstract
Full paper
Climate-change Science: Too much ‘Imagination Block’
Bob Foster – Bob Foster Consultancy
Greenhouse – The Challenge for Energy
Gwen Andrews – Australian Greehouse Office
Designing a Realistic Climate Change Policy that Includes Developing Countries -
Prof Warwick McKibbin & Peter Wilcoxen - ANU & Brookings Inst
Abstract
Full paper
RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING
Carbon Credit Trading: The State of the Emerging Market.
Aldyen Donnelly – Greenhouse Emission Management Consortium
conference overheads (Donnelly.ppt
304k)
Notes from conference overheads
Green Power – Current Issues, Future Growth
Iain Buckland – Energy Efficiency Vic
The Role of Nuclear Energy Early in the New Millennium
Ian Hore-Lacey – Uranium Information Centre
Developments in Power Generation from Biomass in Europe
Chris Hamilton – Lurgi (Aust)
Australia’s Greenhouse Problems and the Nuclear Solution
Leslie Kemeny – Int Nuclear Energy Academy
How to Make a Start on Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Laugh All the Way
to the Bank -
Geoff Rodgers & Ali Javan - GJM Controls
Integrated Drying and Gasification: Technology for Power Generation from Brown Coal and
Biomass - Terry Johnson & Brian Young, HRL & Envirosafe
Abstract
Conference overheads (IDGCC.ppt 915k)
Notes from conference overheads
PLANNING & TECHNOLOGY
ASSESSMENTS
The Use of Scenario Planning in the Electricity Industry
David Evans, W Soontornrangson, R Fuller & D Stewart – Uni of
Melbourne
Numerical Comparison of the Performance of Parallel and Serpentine
Solar Flat Plate Collectors -
Ruth Mossad & Wai Pang – Uni of Southern Qld
Hurdles Barriers and Pitfalls - The Energy Paradox Demystified
Helen Murphy – Uni of RMIT
FUTURE FOR COAL & ELECTRICITY
Has Brown Coal a Future for Fuelling Power Generation?
Malcolm McIntosh – CRC for Clean Power from Lignite
Black Coal - A Sustainable Fuel?
John Wright - CSIRO Energy Technology
Abstract
Conference overheads
Energy for the New Millennium – Directions for Electricity
Supply and Use
Harry Schaap - ESAA
FROM THE CENTURY OF ACHIEVEMENT TO THE CENTURY OF CHANGE: THE ENERGY INDUSTRY AT
THE TURNING POINT
Prof Ian Lowe
Griffith University, Nathan Qld 4111 The amazing achievements
of the energy industry in the twentieth century have given today’s
humans an unprecedented material quality of life. Not only
is energy literally the driving force of modern society, it is also
the key to other shortages and to many environmental problems.
So the availability of large amounts of usable energy is essential
for the survival of civilisation. The success of the energy
industry now poses three major problems. The ready availability
of usable energy is taken for granted, so future planning has almost
been abandoned. Given the time-scale for developing new energy
systems, we should be very concerned about the failure to plan for
the future. It is difficult to see how the present scale of
energy use in the OECD countries could be extended to the whole
world, so an equitable future must involve significant changes in
energy supply and use. More fundamentally, fuel use now poses
environmental problems that are potentially very serious.
All levels of government are now nominally committed to the principle
of sustainable development. There are no easy answers to the
problem of meeting the energy needs of the twenty first century,
requiring radical changes in supply technologies and in systems
for converting energy into the services we want.
Top
ENERGY OUTLOOK INTO THE NEW MILLENNIUM:
KEY TRENDS AND DETERMINANTS
Charles Millsteed, Karen Schneider and Vivek Tulpulé
ABARE, GPO Box 1563 Canberra 2601
International policy responses to the threat of global climate change
and the implementation of multilateral trade liberalisation initiatives are two factors
that have the potential to influence the level, fuel mix and geographic pattern of world
energy demand into the new millennium. These policy factors add to a range of
uncertainties that affects the long term outlook for world energy demand, including
economic growth, population growth, technological change, consumer behavior and energy
sector reform. International responses to the greenhouse gas abatement targets
established in the Kyoto Protocol are likely to reduce the global demand for fossil fuels,
particularly coal. In the event of entry into force of the protocol this will have
important implications for Australia, which relies heavily on coal for domestic energy use
and export earnings. In contrast, the liberalisation of international trade regimes
is expected to lead to higher real incomes in most economies and, in the absence of other
changes such as accelerated energy efficiency improvements, to increased consumption of
energy. Trade liberalisation is also likely to alter the geographic pattern and fuel
mix of world energy trade. These impacts have implications for Australian exports of
energy commodities. The objective in this paper is to discuss the outlook for world
energy demand to the year 2010. The paper includes a reference case in which the
outlook for key energy variables is presented. This takes account of the key
determinants of energy demand on a business as usual basis in the absence of specific new
policy initiatives. The energy sector impacts of climate change response policies
and trade liberalisation initiatives are discussed, based on preliminary results from
current ABARE analysis. Australia's prospects in Asia Pacific energy trade are
explored. Top AIE home page
ENERGY AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT TECHNOLOGY
Mitsuru Takeshita
NEDO Representative Office in Sydney
18th Floor, 60 Margaret St, Sydney NSW 2000
NEDO is the principal semi-governmental organisation
for promoting technological development in Japan. It was established
with executive policy powers under the Ministry of International
Trade and Industry (MITI) in 1980, immediately after the second
oil crisis, and next year celebrates its 20th anniversary.
NEDO is charged with the development and introduction of new energy,
such as solar photovoltaic and wind power generation, advanced industrial
technologies, and global environment technology. NEDO’s
research and development of these technologies goes substantially
beyond that which is conducted by the private sector due to the
financial risks involved. Private companies nevertheless are
encouraged to increase their investment in these areas through subsidies
from the Ministry of International Trade and Industry. NEDO’s
total budget in 1999 is about 5 billion Australian dollars, among
which approximately $1.8 billion has been allocated to R&D into
the introduction of new energy and energy conservation measures.
About $1.2 billion is devoted to innovative environmental and other
industrial technology projects. Top
ENERGY FOR THE NEW MILLENNIUM: ENERGY POLICY, END USE
ISSUES
R R Alderson
Head of Division, Energy and Environment
Department of Industry, Science and Resources
51 Allara Street, Canberra, ACT 2600
In the context of the subject for this symposium “Energy for the New
Millennium”, I will present some thoughts on energy policy imperatives that are
likely to influence end use technologies in the years ahead. This seems to me to be
a useful consideration as, apart from those who directly gain their living from producing
energy, energy is simply an input required to meet our productive, mobility, recreational
and comfort needs; a means to an end, not an end in itself.
Energy supply is essential for industry and commerce
and is a fundamentally important requirement for maintaining and
enhancing our living standards. I will look back a little
and then look forward, identifying some key issues that are likely
to drive energy policy in the years ahead. Top
PHOTOVOLTAICS FOR THE NEW MILLENNIUM
Martin A. Green and Stuart R. Wenham
Centre for Photovoltaic Engineering
University of New South Wales, SYDNEY, N.S.W. 2052 “Photovoltaics”,
the direct conversion of sunlight to electricity using solar cells,
has the potential to transform the way we think about energy during
the first few decades of the new millennium. By the end of
the first decade, under existing government programs, photovoltaics
is expected to be on the roofs of over three million urban residences
around the world. The corresponding industrial stimulation
is expected to transform the photovoltaic industry from his present
“boutique” status to a major energy provider. The
paper describes the technological and policy developments driving
this transformation and their implications. Top
THE DOWNSTREAM PETROLEUM INDUSTRY: CHALLENGES AND
OPPORTUNITIES
J C Starkey
Executive Director, Australian Institute of Petroleum
Australia's demand for petroleum products has traditionally been met almost entirely by
the Australian refiners, supplying product through a network of distributors and
retailers. This system has ensured security of supply of petroleum products of high
quality, to all sectors of the economy.
The Australian industry has, however, come under increasing pressure in recent
years. Several factors have combined to threaten the ongoing viability of the
industry and its ability to continue in its traditional role as the principal supplier of
petroleum products in the Australian market and other markets in the region.
To meet these challenges, the industry must further reduce its costs and
become as efficient as possible through further restructuring and rationalising investment
in the industry. This process is, however, currently inhibited by Federal Government
regulations and policies. Changes in the regulatory framework in which the industry
operates - and, in particular, repeal of outdated legislation and replacement by
supportive Government policies - are a pre-requisite to the achievement of a strong,
efficient downstream oil industry. Top AIE home page
GAS PIPELINES – NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
Dr Allen Beasley
Executive Director, Australian Pipeline Industry Association
This paper will review the opportunities for, and challenges to, gas transmission
pipeline development in Australia.
During the 1990s, Australia’s gas transmission pipeline industry has undergone a
radical overhaul. Recent developments have included:
· Large scale privatisation of government owned assets, leading to an industry that is
primarily private sector owned;
· Convergence of ownership to a relatively small number of national pipeline
owners/operators;
· Regulatory changes which have led to the unbundling of the gas haulage business from
other activities, especially sales, together with third party access arrangements;
and
· Technology advances that have continued to reduce pipeline construction costs.
Against this background of considerable uncertainty and change, it is remarkable that
Australia’s gas transmission pipeline industry has continued to invest strongly in
new pipelines which provide major benefits to Australia, including:
· Improved security of energy supply through interconnected pipelines;
· Greater opportunities for gas on gas competition in major markets;
· Delivery of clean, efficient energy to new markets in regional Australia; and
· An opportunity for energy users to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through
adoption of natural gas in applications such as power generation, minerals processing and
manufacturing.
The capital investment, which has taken place throughout the 1990s, is
set to continue provided the policy settings are correct. However, the industry
faces considerable uncertainty in a number of key areas, including: · Implications
of the Federal Government’s decision to move to whole of life depreciation for major
capital items such as pipelines; · Policy ambiguity about the role of natural gas
as a “bridging fuel”; · The ability of market growth forecasts to be
achieved; · Economic regulatory attitudes and practices that may stifle new
investment; and · Delays in pipeline approval arrangements in a number of States. Top AIE home page
LONG TERM SUPPLY ISSUES IN THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET
T A George and C G Macaulay
NEMMCO, 461 Bourke Street, Melbourne, Vic 3000
The restructure of the electricity industry in the jurisdictions of New South Wales,
Australian Capital Territory, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria reached an
important milestone in December 1998 when the National Electricity Market (NEM)
commenced.
The NEM is a wholesale market set up as a gross pool through which all energy is
traded. A single pool price applies, subject to constraints, and is set by the
highest price offer dispatched to meet demand. The objectives of the NEM are to
encourage efficiency through competition. The generation and retail sectors are
competitive while the networks are set up as regulated monopolies.
The National Electricity Market Management Company (NEMMCO) has been established to
operate the physical market and has been given three primary roles to perform:
i) Operate the NEM
ii) Develop the NEM (with an emphasis on improving efficiency); and
iii) Co-ordinate planning in the NEM
It is in the operation of the market and the coordination of planning that NEMMCO is
concerned with the adequacy and development of the supply-side of the market.
NEMMCO has obligations to ensure supply adequacy in the short to medium term (up to two
years) through the information that it provides to the market and the mechanisms for
intervention which have been specified in the Code.
It is intended that supply side (or equivalent demand side) investments
should occur in response to market forces and signals which are produced as a result of
the market design. The market is left to determine where or when investment should
take place or what fuel or technology should be used. NEMMCO’s role is
essentially limited to the provision of information concerning the adequacy of the
supplies and, as a last resort, intervention in the short to medium term to address supply
shortfalls.
NEMMCO has a further role of supplying longer-term information on the supply / demand
balance which it achieves through the publication of forecasts in the Statement of
Opportunities (SOO). This paper will discuss these short and long term views, as
well as a number of factors which NEMMCO expects may have a significant impact on the
supply side in coming years. Top AIE
home page
REGULATION FOR THE NEW MILLEMIUM
Joe Dimasi
Regulatory Affairs Division, Australian Competition and Consumer Commission
Policy and Regulatory developments in the New Millenium will need to address the
following issues:
1. THE PROMOTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF GENUINE MARKETS
ELECTRICITY
a) Sustainable competition in generation
b) b) Interconnection: clear and workable rules must be in place to allow the development
of a genuine market through interconnection across geographic areas
c) Network pricing; how is pricing for the network to be set if it is to encourage
the efficient usage of the network and also sensible investment in the network
d) Will the contestability timetable be followed allow the benefits of competition be
passed on to all customers?
GAS
a) The reforms mid and downstream need to be matched with upstream reform to ensure that
the benefits of competition are passed on to all customers.
b) The reforms need to remove any barriers to the development of a sustainable market
through interconnection that allows inter-basin competition
2. CONVERGENCE
We are already seeing companies involved in both the gas and electricity sectors.
This can be expected to continue. This implies that there has to be some consistency
in regulatory approach between gas and electricity.
3. REGULATORY COORDINATION As national markets develop in gas and
electricity across states boundaries, regulatory coordination must continue to be an
important priority. Top AIE home page
THE PERFORMANCE OF VICTORIA'S PRIVATISED POWER STATIONS
John W H Price
Mechanical Engineering Department, Monash University.
The current status of the power generation capacity in the State of Victoria is given
in Table 1. This table also gives the date of sale and the current name of the
operating company. Most of the owners are consortia of various investors, usually
including Australian investment houses. There have been modifications to the equity
structures of some of the stations since the original sales, so the "significant
owners" are basically the owners dominant in the operation of the station.
When considering the effect privatisation has had on the performance of
the power station, the public is interested in at least four measures of power station
performance. These are:
· The price of electricity;
· The capacity to supply electricity;
· Environmental measures; and
· Safety measures. This paper considers the first two of these measures. As
will be seen both of these have apparently dramatically improved. Environmental and
safety measures are not the subject of this paper but, in so far as information is
available, they appear to be, on average, improving. Top AIE home page
UTILITY POWER PLANT – AFTER MARKET SERVICE, AN OEM
PERSPECTIVE,
H. Schultz
Siemens Ltd – Power Generation Department
9 Parkview Street, Milton Queensland 4064
Maintenance, overhaul practices and procedures adopted by a significant
number of power plant utilities have changed markedly in the last years. The reasons for
this are competition coupled with the increasing trend of corporatisation and/or
privatisation of previously owned government power generation plant. Additional, factors
for the change in maintenance and overhaul practices can be attributed to the ageing of
plant and increasing pressure for profitability in an open, deregulated market economy
environment. This paper addresses some of the changes within the utility power
generation service industry, including Outsourcing, Reverse Engineering and Local
Manufacture. The paper further outlines the Siemens Ltd response to meet ongoing customer
needs, now-and in the future. Example of changes is the establishment of Alliances and
Partnerships with clients, strategic workshops and specialised service companies.
Further, the concept of the dedicated ‘Power Station Business Manager’, is being
phased in progressively to provide ‘first-up’, one point user friendly service
for the customers for the broad range of Siemens Ltd products and services Top
AIE home page
FORGING THE BUSINESS/IT POWER PARTNERSHIP
William Ehmcke
META Group Asia Pacific
The energy utility industry is going through a dramatic globalisation phase. Mergers
and acquisitions, led by aggressive US and European energy companies, are creating
businesses with operations that span North and South America,
Europe, and the Asia Pacific region.
Adding to the organisational complexity, this globalisation is occurring
in multiple lines of business, some of which are
unregulated (eg. production / generation) and some of which are regulated by the countries
and local jurisdictions in which the businesses are located (eg. transmission,
distribution). Local business, regulatory, and social environments dictate
differing approaches to marketing, management, and operations. Top AIE home page
PERFORMANCE CONTRACTING IN FACILITY DEVELOPMENT
THE GEELONG HOSPITAL EXPERIENCE
J R Bowler
Director of Building and Engineering Services
Barwon Health, Ryrie Street, Geelong,Vic 3220
Approximately 40% of the cost of construction of an acute hospital is in the
engineering services which are very complex and diverse. Capital Funding for
engineering services infrastructure is difficult to secure as competition from core
business activities such as clinical services generally takes precedent. Careful
analysis, however, may identify cost reduction opportunities which may, themselves,
substantially fund the development of improved plant and equipment. The most likely
cost savings are in:
i) Reduced service contract costs. Often high as they are tied to existing plant
which may well have passed its use by date or, in the case of lift contracts, the old type
comprehensive contracts are very expensive.
ii) Reduced maintenance and repair costs. Old plant often costs excessive amounts
to maintain in service and in the case of large central plant, failures can be expensive
and unpredictable, destroying budget projections and jeopardising other planned
works.
iii) Reduced energy costs. Energy generally provides one of the larger funding
sources, because boiler, chiller and air conditioning plant, along with lighting, are
frequently inefficient and more often than not installed with expediency in mind rather
than performance.
iv) Replacing manned plant with unattended plant Significant
savings may be derived by improvements through capital investment, but it is important to
develop strategies to ensure that these are both real and sustainable. Frequently,
investment in plant is not supported by maintenance programs and even if they are, the
contracts have few, if any, performance incentives. In most cases, profit is the
best incentive and, if the performance is tied to a capital investment, then it could be
expected that the investment would be made to work for you. Performance contracting
is thus a legitimate tool to deliver improvements in infrastructure and service. Top AIE home page
BENEFIT COST ANALYSIS OF DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT PROGRAMMES IN
INDIA
B.Sudhakara Reddy
Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research
Goregaon (E), Bombay 400 065, India.
Energy usage efficiency is a topic that has been discussed for a long
time. However, a framework for the quantification of targets in terms of costs and
energy and power savings as well as the distribution of benefits and costs among
stakeholders, viz., consumers, utility and society is lacking. Also, sound and
rational planning strategies demand the inclusion of energy efficiency and demand side
management (DSM) in the planning process. In order to quantify the potential for DSM
and to assess the benefits and costs for various DSM options, a study is carried out for
the high tension (HT) industries in India which accounts for 35% of the total electricity
consumption. Twelve different DSM options have been considered and electricity and
power savings are estimated for a fifteen-year period (1996-2010 AD). This paper
provides a methodological framework (which at present is lacking in Indian context) for
individual DSM options and estimates energy and peak demand savings. The cost
benefits have been assessed for different DSM programmes from the following
perspectives, viz., Utility, Customer and Total Resource. This is an attempt to
evolve a rational basis for deciding how each stakeholder can benefit from each option so
that costs and benefits can be shared among various players. Top AIE home page
CASCADE – THE GROUP DYNAMIC BOOSTS ENERGY RESULTS
Maryanne Walkley
Energy Efficiency Victoria
115 Spring St Melbourne 3000
The Energy Smart Cascade programs were introduced by Energy Efficiency
Victoria to reduce Victoria’s greenhouse gas emissions through energy management in
business. The programs draw together the roles of industry and government in
addressing climate change and in fulfilling our national and international
obligations. Energy Smart Cascade programs are designed to cascade energy efficiency
concepts through a host such as a large company or industry association to its suppliers
or members. The companies participating in the Energy Smart Cascade program for 1999
are Ford and a group of component manufacturers, Australian Industry Group and a group of
food manufacturers, La Trobe Valley Generators Group and the five Victorian generators,
and NIETL/NORTH Link and a group of companies from the Preston area of Melbourne. Top AIE home page
A 2020 VISION FOR NSW ELECTRICITY SUPPLY
Graeme Jessup and Andrew Williamson
Sustainable Energy Development Authority (SEDA)
Level 6, 45 Clarence St Sydney, NSW, Australia
The Sustainable Energy Development Authority (SEDA) is tasked with
reducing NSW greenhouse gas emissions by investing in the commercialisation and increased
use of sustainable energy technologies. But how realistic is the concept of
sustainable energy in NSW? Given that coal-fired power stations currently
supply over 90% of NSW power, and considering our growing energy demands, plus the high
costs of renewable energy, is it feasible to shift away from coal to less
greenhouse-intensive sources? In order to produce effective and useful plans for how
NSW could achieve a sustainable future, it is necessary to evaluate what is realistically
achievable. Based on available data for potential renewable energy resources, this
paper shows one hypothetical scenario of what the mix of NSW energy generation sources
could be in the year 2020. The outcome of this exercise is an optimistic but
feasible electricity supply mix, which is summarised in Fig. 1. This paper outlines
the assumptions used and goes on to discuss some of the implications of the scenario. Top AIE home page
GREEN ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MILLENNIUM
Jack Taylor
Office of Sustainable Energy
Department of Mines and Energy, Qld
It is my intention in this paper to cover four areas, namely: 1.
Renewables; 2. What’s Special About Queensland 3. Lessons We Have Learnt
About Embedded Generators 4. Where Global Trends are Going in This Area of Green
Energy. Top AIE home page
PROGRESS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE AND ITS ROLE IN GREENHOUSE POLICY
G I Pearman
Chief, CSIRO Atmospheric Research
PBM #1, Aspendale, Vic, 3195
In 1999, it is difficult to comprehend just how much change has been associated with
the issue of the so-called “enhanced greenhouse effect” since the scientific
community first suggested that it is an issue for all of the community to consider
(Villach, 1985). On the scientific side, a mechanism has been established by which
periodic assessments of the state of the science are made by a panel called the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) comprising several thousand scientists
around the world. This Panel has already delivered two assessments (IPCC, 1990,
1996).
Scientists are busily preparing the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, for release
early in 2000 (http.www.unep.ch/ipcc/). In this presentation I will call heavily on
the IPCC Second Assessment Report. However, this is a field of rapid change and I
will also refer to recent outcomes of CSIRO research. Other overall assessments of
the state of the science can be seen at www.agu.org/eos_elec/99148e.html
(Ledley et al., 1999); at the Environment Canada web site, http://www1.tor.ec.gc.ca/apac/climate/co2-climate/CO2_english_99-01.pdf
or at my Divisional web site, www.dar.csiro.au.
The other side of this rapid development has to do with policy. In the short few
years since “Villach”, we have seen the establishment of an international
Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the Kyoto Protocol. The Framework
Convention (see www.unfccc.de/fccc/conv/conv)
has the express purpose of bringing about the “stabilisation of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system”. The Protocol provides a first attempt at
a set of agreements amongst developed countries to reduce global emissions of greenhouse
gases (www.unfccc.de/fccc/docs/cop3/protocol).
The final, and most recent development, relates to the response to the
Protocol. In its broadest sense, this involves real attempts to minimise carbon
emissions, recognition that carbon emissions may develop dollar value, and that we are
seeing a process whereby the environmental costs of carbon emissions may become
effectively internalised in the costs of our energy resources. In this paper, as a
climate scientist, I will speak mostly about the underpinning science of
“greenhouse”, but will attempt to give a perspective of how this work is
influenced by, or influences, these other developments. Top AIE home page
CLIMATE-CHANGE SCIENCE: TOO MUCH IMAGINATION BLOCK
Bob Foster
Bob Foster Consultancy
30A Vautier St Elwood, Vic 3184
This document seeks to perform two tasks:
1) Review the geoscience record of natural climate variability, thus showing that the
climate system is dynamic - not uniformitarian or gradualist - and that ice- and
ocean-related extreme events have played a key role in past climate change.
2) Analyse the narrow atmospheric-science underpinnings of the Kyoto Protocol, thus
showing that measured warming over the past century and more of the instrumented record
was wrongly attributed in Kyoto to changes in atmospheric composition
These are not just academic issues.
If climate-change is indeed driven by ice, oceans and atmosphere acting in concert, and
not by changes in atmospheric composition alone, the validity of the numerical models used
to predict future warming would be seriously compromised. These models cannot
recognise the likelihood of future extreme events.
Furthermore, and irrespective of what may happen in the future, if observed warming to
date is indeed largely unrelated to human-caused changes in atmospheric composition, the
purported validation by hindcasting of the models used to make the predictions of global
warming is spurious. It is predictions by these computer models which were the basis
for the decisions taken at Kyoto
If the assertions made in this document are correct, it would follow that:
1) The economic hardship which application in full of the Kyoto Protocol
will engender is based on unsound science - because of ‘imagination block’ in
the supposed reconciliation of over-predicting models with an under-warming World.
2) Even more important, the Kyoto Protocol will pose an unnecessary threat to the
environment - because the more zeal and the more money put into limiting greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions, the less remaining for other more-pressing environmental
imperatives. Top AIE home
page
GREENHOUSE – THE CHALLENGE FOR ENERGY
Gwen Andrews
Chief Executive, Australian Greenhouse Office
www.greenhouse.gov.au
I would like to thank the Australian Institute of Energy for the opportunity to speak
here today. I will outline the context of the Commonwealth’s policy on
greenhouse issues and the challenges that face Australia in containing its
emissions. In particular, I would like to focus on two energy measures:
· Additional 2% renewables; and
· Efficiency standards for power generation.
These two energy measures form part of a number of integrated, complementary measures
currently being implemented by the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO) as part of the
National Greenhouse Strategy.
In addition I would like to touch on the subject of energy market reform
which, whilst not a direct responsibility of the AGO, is an area in which we have a keen
interest. Less greenhouse intense means of energy generation are vitally important
for Australia to meet its international commitments. Longer term planning for energy
generation, transmission and distribution is paramount to lower the greenhouse intensity
of energy supply in Australia. This will require the commitment of all governments
and sectors of the Australian economy. Top AIE home page
DESIGNING A REALISTIC CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY THAT INCLUDES
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Warwick J. McKibbina,b and Peter J. Wilcoxenb,c
a - Australian National University, Canberra
b - The Brookings Institution, Washimgton DC
c - University of Texas at Austin In earlier papers we have argued that the Kyoto
Protocol is not sustainable as a global climate change policy and have proposed an
alternative policy regime based on a coordinated but decentralized system of national
permit trading systems with a fixed internationally negotiated price for permits. In
this paper we extend this earlier proposal to include an explicit mechanism for
participation by developing countries. The idea is to give incentives for
carbon abatement in developing countries through price signals without imposing short or
medium term costs in these economies. This new system is based on the creation of
two types of assets in each participating country – emission endowments and emission
permits. We argue that this new system is an effective and realistic way to move
forward on a sustainable regime for climate change policy. Top AIE home page
GREEN POWER – CURRENT ISSUES, FUTURE GROWTH
Iain Buckland
Energy Efficiency Victoria
215 Spring Street, Melbourne, Vic., 3000
Electricity in Australia is primarily generated by black and brown coal
fired power stations. Only about 10% of the total electricity generation is
currently sourced from renewable energy, the largest portion of which is hydro-electricity
(ESAA, 1998). However, there is a growing awareness and interest in renewable
energy, due largely to a range of State and Commonwealth Government energy policies and
programs intended as a response to international measures to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. From the 1996 National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, electricity generation
accounted for 35% of net emissions and grew by 14% from 1990 to 1996 (AGO,1999).
This provides a powerful incentive to increase the use of renewable energy. This
paper is concerned particularly with Green Power, a program which enables electricity
retailers to offer customers the choice of purchasing all, or a proportion of their
electricity consumption from renewable energy sources. This has been received by
customers with enthusiasm, largely due to being backed by a rigorous accreditation
program. The result has been the development of a number of significant renewable
energy projects around Australia, with many more currently being planned. Top
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THE ROLE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY EARLY IN THE NEW MILLENIUM
Ian Hore-Lacy
Uranium Information Centre
GPO Box 1649N, Melbourne 3001
http://www.uic.com.au
Out of the crucible of horrific weapons has come a technology of enormous benefit to
humanity, through medicine, industrial applications, marine propulsion and the production
of electricity, which is the focus of this paper.
Over the last 40 years nuclear energy has become a major source of the world’s
electricity , now providing over 16 percent of the total. It has the potential to
contribute much more, especially if greenhouse concerns lead to a change in the relative
economic advantage of nuclear electricity or its ethical desirability.
Nevertheless, there are those who wish somehow to put the genie back in the bottle and
to return to some pre-nuclear innocence. Such notions seem to achieve undue
prominence in Australia because the actual utilisation of nuclear power is remote.
We are virtually the only developed country where, when you switch on the light, you
are not getting some nuclear electricity to help lighten your way.
Of course there is enormous appeal in the proposition that we should develop
"renewable" technologies to harness better the sun and the wind. I fully
support such developments, and hope that we can do rather better than the official 2%
target. However, we need also to recognise that such sources are intrinsically
unsuited to providing base-load electricity, which requires continuous and reliable supply
on a gigawatt-day (rather than kilowatt-hour) scale.
Much electricity demand is for reliable, continuous supply which simply cannot be met
from renewables such as wind and solar photovoltaic sources on any significant
scale. For instance, Victoria requires more than 4 million kilowatts (GWe) of
continuous base-load supply, and the further 2 GWe of fluctuating demand does not coincide
with daylight hours or strong winds.
Uranium's only significant non-weapons use is to power nuclear reactors. There
are over 1100 nuclear reactors operating today around the world, with only one of these in
Australia:
· about 310 research reactors, producing isotopes for medicine and industry
· over 400 reactors powering ships, mostly submarines
· 440 larger reactors generating electricity.
In particular, uranium is used for base-load electricity. Here it competes with
coal, and to some extent, natural gas, though particular ethical issues are raised in
squandering such a valuable resource as natural gas in that way. In most countries
electricity demand is increasing much faster than overall energy demand. This is
partly because in many applications other than heating, using electricity increases
efficiency and so means using less energy overall.
Public debate about the virtues and threats of nuclear energy is about
options for producing electricity. None of the options are without some risk or side
effects. All Australian uranium is sold for electricity production, none goes into
weapons, and two layers of international safeguards arrangements ensure this. Top AIE home page
DEVELOPMENTS IN POWER GENERATION FROM BIOMASS IN EUROPE
C J Hamilton
Lurgi (Australia) Pty Ltd
230 Albert Road, South Melbourne, Vic 3205 With a view to addressing its
energy requirements for the new millennium, Australia can learn a great deal from the
recent developments in the utilisation of biomass that have taken place in Europe over the
last decade. More particularly, the focus should be directed to the ideas and
solutions, which have been developed for the treatment and disposal of waste materials.
The aim of this paper is to provide a window into a number of projects where Lurgi has
recently been involved in the generation of electric power from biomass. The author has
just returned to Australia after a 6 year secondment with Lurgi in Germany and the United
Kingdom. Top AIE home page
AUSTRALIA’S GREENHOUSE PROBLEMS AND THE NUCLEAR
SOLUTION
Leslie G Kemeny
Australian Member – International Nuclear Energy Academy
Director – L & M Kemeny and Associates – Consulting Nuclear Engineers and
Physicists
Visiting Academic Research Fellow
The Australian Government must act soon to draft a policy in regard to the peaceful use
of nuclear energy in the domestic area. This should reflect the historical evidence
of the highly successful use of nuclear energy in over thirty overseas countries during
the past four decades. The policy vacuum created by a long tradition of
eco-political activism, media sensationalism and poor education should not be allowed to
prevail into the new millennium in which this country will face new domestic and
international energy challenges.
No country on earth has more to gain by full participation in the international uranium
fuel cycle industry and the development of a domestic nuclear electricity generating
capacity than the Commonwealth of Australia. The environmental, technical, fiscal
and societal benefits to this nation would be considerable. Such a move would also
validate Australia’s oft declared interest in global nuclear disarmament and give the
nation greater credibility in the international regulation of the “tail-end” of
both the hydrocarbon and the nuclear fuel cycles.
In terms of relative risk per unit of energy generated, the uranium fuel
cycle is far safer, mostly cheaper and environmentally preferable to its base load
competitor. Its waste products are a small volume, local repository storable,
potentially commercially profitable industrial venture. By comparison the
“tail-end” of the hydrocarbon fuel cycle consists of greenhouse gases and
carcinogenic pollutants in volumes and concentrations which are essentially uncontainable
and uncontrollable. Poised on the edge of the new millennium, Australia –
already the world’s top coal exporting country is about to become a major uranium
exporter to an energy hungry planet. It is imperative that the Commonwealth
Government should recognise both the domestic and global implications of this challenging
role for the nation. A national energy policy should underline the complimentary
role of these two base load fuels and promote the role of nuclear fuel in both the
domestic and global context. Top AIE
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HOW TO MAKE A START ON GREEN HOUSE GAS REDUCTION AND LAUGH ALL THE
WAY TO THE BANK
Geoff Rogers & Ali Javan
GJM Controls, 150 Albert Rd South Melbourne, Vic 3205
Green house gas emission reduction is mostly directed to CO2, a byproduct of
combustion of fossil fuels. While Australia is in a disadvantageous position
relative to many countries because of heavy reliance on coal, compared to say natural gas,
wind nuclear or hydro sources, Australian technology is helping the worlds fossil fuel
fired power stations and many industrial boilers minimise total CO2 emissions
by increasing efficiency of combustion, by excess air minimisation.
CSIRO developed the world’s leading Zirconia sensor technology for flue gas oxygen
measurement. An Australian company commercialised this technology and now dominates
the Australian power station market with the technology because it is for the first time
reliable enough for closed-loop automatic air trimming control especially on gas fired
plant.
This paper will explain the relationships between fossil fuel stoichiometry, excess air
and CO2 emissions and zirconia sensor flue gas oxygen measurement and
control. By carefully controlling excess air, reductions in CO2 emissions
of 3-5% are readily achievable along with reductions in fuel costs of the same
order. Side benefits can include reduction in NOx and increased safety of the
operation. This is expected to be a low cost and increasingly popular measure for
industrial enterprises to attack the greenhouse problem with an easy win-win result, as
compared to many other greenhouse emission reduction strategies available.
The range of applications occurring in the industry is discussed, along
with the special requirements of the hydrocarbon processing industry for location of
equipment in hazardous areas, with potentially flammable atmospheres. The
non-financial benefit of reductions in the levels of the emissions of Oxides of Nitrogen,
the controversial greenhouse gas Carbon Dioxide, hazardous Carbon Monoxide and Sulphur
Oxides is also discussed. Top AIE home
page
INTEGRATED DRYING AND GASIFICATION: TECHNOLOGY FOR POWER
GENERATION FROM BROWN COAL AND BIOMASS
Terry R Johnsona and Brian C Youngb
a - HRL Technology Pty Ltd, Mulgrave, Vic 3170, and
b - Envirosafe, Balwyn, Vic 3103, byoung@envirosafe.com.au
Renewable energy has received a substantial boost in prominence in Australia since the
issuing of:
1) the Prime Minister’s statement in November 1997 on energy and greenhouse gas
emissions; and
2) the Kyoto Protocol in December 1997.
The fact that 2% of Australia’s electricity generation needs to be derived from
new renewable energy sources by the year 2010, limits the fuel/energy options in the short
term, simply from the sheer size of the undertaking, namely some 9000 GWh of electricity
is required from new renewables alone. Realistically, this target can only be
achieved by using biomass as the major fuel/energy source.
The use of biomass for power generation could be done by direct combustion or co-firing
in existing power plants. However, this involves some risk because of high alkali
levels in the ash of some biomass materials. Gasification is an alternative
approach, which overcomes many of the problems of direct combustion, because the fuel gas
can be cleaned before being used either in a steam boiler or in a gas turbine
combined-cycle plant.
HRL Limited is developing a low-cost high-efficiency power generation
technology for brown coal that closely integrates the drying and gasification
processes. This technology, known as Integrated Drying Gasification Combined Cycle
(IDGCC), uses the hot fuel gas produced in the gasifier to dry the incoming coal under
pressure in a direct contact entrained flow dryer. This cools the gas, reducing the
requirement for costly heat exchangers. The gas is burned in a gas turbine combined
cycle to produce power. Integrated Drying and Gasification (IDG) is a part of the
technology that is ideally suited to other high moisture fuels such as biomass, where the
fuel must be dried before it can be gasified effectively. IDG includes an air-blown
pressurised fluidised bed gasifier coupled with an entrained flow dryer that uses the heat
in the fuel gas to dry the incoming fuel. Evaluations of a range of biomass types
indicate that fuel gas of adequate quality can be produced from these materials. Top AIE home page
THE USE OF SCENARIO PLANNING IN THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY
David Evans,1 Wirachai Soontornrangson,2 Robert Fuller2
and Don Stewart2
Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning,1 Faculty of Engineering2
The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010
In the early stages of the development of an industrial economy the demand for
electricity is often increasing at rates of 10–15% per year. Such high growth
rates are difficult to manage, as they require a doubling of installed generating capacity
every few years. Even a growth rate of 7% per year, which is typical of an economy
in its middle stages of development, requires doubling of capacity every ten years.
This creates problems. No matter what the maximum demand is in five or ten years
time, planners must provide sufficient capacity to meet it. But unexpected downturns
in the economy can then result in equipment lying idle with no return from the capital
invested. This problem can be minimized by curtailing development of new plant when
it becomes obvious that demand is not going to meet expectations. However, some
types of power station, for example base-load coal or nuclear stations, may have lead
times of up to ten years between the decision to proceed and the supply of electricity
into the grid. This commits the supplier to the development long before it is
obvious that it will not be required. The result is often overcapacity and
inflexibility from the installation of the wrong types of generating plant.
The problem of planning for an uncertain future is not unique to the
generation of electricity: it is faced by any business that has to make investment
decisions today to provide for future production tomorrow. One of the ways of
dealing with this problem is to develop business plans using scenario planning.
There is now an extensive literature dealing with this technique (see, for example, the
books by Amara and Lipinski (1983) and Georgantzas and Acar (1995), and the useful review
by Schnaars (1990)). In this paper we investigate the application of scenario
planning to the electricity industry, using Thailand as an example. Top
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NUMERICAL COMPARISON OF THE PERFORMANCE OF A PARALLEL AND A
SERPENTINE SOLAR FLAT PLATE COLLECTORS
Ruth Riad Mossad, Wai Keung Pang
Faculty of Engineering and Surveying,
USQ, Toowoomba, QLD 4350, Australia
e-mail: mossad@usq.edu.au
The finite difference method is used to compare the performance of two
types of solar water heaters, namely the parallel and the serpentine flat plate
collectors. The comparison aims at increasing the understanding of the two types and
how they may differ and helping the designer with a basis for the choice of systems for a
particular application. Performance prediction has been made based on a steady and
two-dimensional analysis of each type for a variety of cases. Parameters studied
were plate width to tube diameter ratio, solar intensity, mass flow rate, initial fluid
temperature, and mass flow rate to plate area ratio. Also, the effect of Reynolds
Number of the fluid being circulated on the performance of the collectors is
investigated. The results showed that both types performed in most cases in a
similar fashion. At a width between tubes to tube diameter ratio of 3, both types
showed an optimum performance. The results showed, however, that for medium to high
flow rates and low fluid inlet temperatures, the serpentine water heater performed
slightly better than a parallel water heater. Top AIE home page
HURDLES, BARRIERS AND PITFALLS: THE ENERGY PARADOX
DEMYSTIFIED.
Helen Murphy
Department of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering
RMIT University, GPO Box 2476V Melbourne. 3000
History has shown that energy efficiency has been a fragile business - treated as a
generic benefit or common good and quickly abandoned when conditions were not right.
The term “energy paradox” or “efficiency gap” was subsequently coined
in the mid 1980s to reflect the lack of concerted effort by industry to adopt seemingly
rational economic strategies to improve energy efficiency.
Early in 1998, Energy Efficiency Victoria (EEV), sought to develop partnerships with
industry bodies and customers and suppliers, such that energy efficiency savings could be
“cascaded” throughout a multiplicity of companies and also assist those
companies that may not normally have had access to internal energy/engineering
support.
This paper will present the preliminary findings of a phenomenographic
review of such a corporate partnership program. Interviews were conducted which
specifically attempted to identify the perceptions people held regarding energy related
issues and whether an outward lack of attention to energy related issues within the
company could be traced back to the underlying perceptions held by key decision
makers. It is the intention that further comparative studies of energy programs will
build system-engineering models of organisational behaviour; the basis of which will be
useful for government authorities and any organisation seeking to implement energy
management programmes. Top AIE home
page
HAS BROWN COAL A FUTURE FOR FUELLING POWER GENERATION?
Malcolm McIntosh
Manager, Technology Development
CRC for Clean Power from Lignite
The overwhelming majority of the electrical power generated in Victoria is fuelled by
brown coal. Allowing for maximum import through the Snowy link and a reducing export
to South Australia, it is expected that new generation will be required in Victoria by
2002/03 (NEMMCO, June 1999). The initial demand is likely to be met by gas
turbines in open or cogeneration cycle fuelled with natural gas.
To meet the State’s future demand requirements there are a range of power
generation, transmission interconnection, and demand side options to be considered.
The focus of this paper is on power generation options, particularly from the mix fuelled
with natural gas, renewable resources and brown coal.
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) issues will influence these options. Already the Prime
Minister has mandated that by 2010, 2% more power should be generated from renewable
sources. This initiative is expected to accelerate the development of renewable
technologies to facilitate these becoming commercially competitive.
Current projections for future generation tend to consider only the
continuation of generation from current brown coal plant. The projections tend not
to recognise the significant advantages that could be achieved from the commercialisation
of new coal technologies currently under development and demonstration. This paper
considers future demand and the extent and costs of power generation from the various
alternative primary energy resources. It argues the case that power generation from
brown coal, particularly when used in high efficiency power generation plant, should
remain a dominant part of the fuel mix in Victoria. Top AIE home page
BLACK COAL – A SUSTAINABLE FUEL?
J K Wright
CSIRO Energy Technology
PO Box 136 North Ryde, NSW 1670
Coal is under siege. Despite the facts that coal is currently essential to
the maintenance of high living standards and there is no present cost-effective substitute
for this energy source, it has a poor local and international image. The continued
use of coal is increasingly being called into question because of its perceived
environmental consequences of its production and use and the social desire for change
towards less greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive fuel sources. Coal has a major challenge
to show how continued use of this energy resource can fit into a broad sustainability
context. Top AIE home page
ENERGY FOR THE NEW MILLENNIUM – DIRECTIONS FOR ELECTRICITY
SUPPLY AND USE
Harry Schaap
Assistant Director, ESAA Ltd.
GPO Box 1823Q, Melbourne, Australia, 3001
Electricity is the most valued energy source in the 20th century due to its instant
availability and wide range of applications. Electricity will be the premium energy
source in the new millennium because of the dominance of microprocessor applications and
the ability to deliver precisely the right quantity and quality of non-polluting energy at
the point of end-use.
Both the supply and use of electricity will expand greatly in the coming decades as
supply sources multiply and the use of fossil fuels (and non-sustainable bio-fuels)
continues to decline and the world’s current 2.5 billion people without electricity
gain access to cheap, mostly renewables-based, supply.
Over the next 30 years, the supply side will be shaped by a decreasing share of nuclear
based electricity, significant improvements in the carbon intensity of fossil fuel use and
a rapidly growing share of mostly small embedded renewable energy systems. The share
of existing hydro is likely to decline world-wide due to resource and environmental
pressures.
Global electricity growth is projected to continue
at around 3% per annum with very much larger growth over the next
10-15 years. Overtime, the growth rate will reduce as the
ability to use electricity more efficiently and more effectively
improves. For instance, projections by the International Energy
Agency for the next 25 years indicate that electricity use for lighting
(per lumen output) will reduce by 50% with similar improvements
in the combined use of motors and drives and slightly smaller improvements
in electronic applications, and in heating, ventilation and air-conditioning.
The presentation focusses on three key topics: · Electricity
supply in Australia and its current and future economic value
· Electricity supply and greenhouse issues management · Role
and opportunities for renewables in electricity supply. Top
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