In this paper we report highlights from ABARE’s latest set of long term
projections of Australian energy consumption and production covering the
period to 2019-20. Key messages include:
• Over the next twenty years, final energy consumption is forecast
to grow, on average, by 2.3 per cent a year.
• Coal and oil will continue to supply the vast bulk of Australia’s
domestic energy needs, although the use of natural gas is expected to grow
strongly.
• Electricity generation is forecast to grow by 2.3 per cent a year
on average over the projection period, with black coal expected to continue
to account for over 50 per cent of the mix.
• Energy use in road freight and air transport are both expected to
grow strongly.
• In manufacturing, gas consumption in the iron and steel sector is
forecast to increase sharply, reflecting a positive outlook for direct
reduced iron.
• LNG exports are projected to grow, on average, by 5.9 per cent a
year and to account for over 40 per cent of total Australian production
of natural gas by 2019-20.
• In the absence of major new discoveries, Australia’s reliance on
imported crude oil is expected to increase significantly.