Electricity consumption could well increase six-fold over the course of this century as all the world’s people strive for first-world living standards.
Even if this foreshadows electricity replacing oil and gas in transport and other markets, the outlook for greenhouse gas emissions is ominous indeed, unless this electricity can be derived from primary energy sources without consequential greenhouse gas emissions.
Society would prefer that primary sources used be renewable.  Is this possible, and if so, what has to be done to bring this utopian vision about?
This paper attempts to forecast the extent of the world’s reliance on its available energy sources, fossil, nuclear and renewable, through the span of this century.  A model based upon the Experience Effect is applied to forecast how the relative shares enjoyed by these sources might shift in light of current constraints and what, if anything, needs to be done to ensure the world frees itself of concerns over global warming.
 
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