100 years ago the new 20th century presaged electricity and the automobile.
That their global impacts have in hindsight been profound is obvious, yet
it took until the middle of the century before their benefits became available
to significant numbers of ordinary people. As we enter the 21st century
their full benefits are still largely confined to the 20 per cent of humanity
living in the developed nations.
Cheap energy from fossil fuels has largely underwritten these benefits,
and this is generally seen as being a necessary condition for a high living
standard. But we enter this century increasingly concerned about
one unwelcome consequence: uncontrolled emissions of greenhouse gases,
carbon dioxide in particular, and the impacts these may have.
The 80 per cent of humanity not enjoying first-world living standards
(and energy consumption levels) quite reasonably, aspire to them.
Yet if their aspirations are to be met in the way the rich 20 per cent
have met theirs, the presumed consequences are frightening indeed.
Such projections are central to increasing levels of anxiety being felt
globally, becoming manifest in the Kyoto Protocol and much sympathetic
national legislation.
But, does it make any more sense to project today’s energy consumption
patterns 50, let alone 100 years into the future, than it did 100 years
ago to project in the same way that by the 21st century, city streets would
become hopelessly choked from accumulations of horse manure?
How will the world’s burgeoning energy requirements be satisfied?
Concerns expressed over the adverse consequences of the enhanced greenhouse
effect talk in 50- and 100-year time scales, so we should surely address
this question over similar time scales.
Aware of the pitfalls of forecasting, we hesitate to look too far ahead--2020
is widely regarded as a currently acceptable horizon. Yet that year
is far too close to yield meaningful insights—most of our big coal fired
power stations, refineries and much else making up our energy infrastructures
will probably still be operating for decades to come. And while solar-,
wind- and other renewables-based energy sources are growing at compound
rates of around 30 per cent annually, even if these extraordinary rates
are sustained, their current base is so small that by 2020 their contribution
will barely register on global energy supply source maps.
Where does Australia, an energy-rich, developed
country, fit into all this?
Uniquely for an Australian energy forum, the 2001 Australian Institute
of Energy National Conference embraced discussion of emerging technologies
in time scales long enough to allow realisation of their full potential,
and long enough to accommodate the economic lifetimes of existing energy
infrastructures. The Conference represented an essential forum for everyone
interested in the “future history” of energy demand and supply.
Conference opening
The Hon. R J Carr, Premier of NSW
The Future - Global Growth
Dr John Wright - CSIRO Energy Technology
"Sustainable Energy Supply - A Key to Global Growth"
Mr Bruce Rosengarten - Shell Australia Pty Ltd
"Potential Global Energy Scenarios - the Shell view"
Dr Bjorn Lomborg – University of Aarhus, Denmark
“The Skeptical Environmentalist looks at Energy”
Demand and Supply - Balancing the Future
Mr Bob Pritchard - Pritchard Udovenya
"Overcoming the Institutional Obstacles to Energy Demand and Supply
Imbalance"
Mr Andrew Dickson - ABARE
"ABARE's Australian Energy Supply and demand
Outlook (to 2020 and beyond)
Dr John Sligar - IEAust National Committee on Fuel and Energy
" Energy Transition to 2020 – Political and Technical
Aspects of Electricity Supply"
Primary Energy - Now and the Future
Mr David Cain - Rio Tinto Technology
"The Future: How do we get there from here?"
Mr Richard Hunwick - Hunwick Consultants P/L
"The Rational Path to the Age of Renewable Energy"
Mr Leslie Kemeny - The Australian Member of the INEA
"Emerging Nuclear Energy Systems - A One Hundred
Year Perspective"
Mr Barry Jones - APPEA
"Liquid Hydrocarbon Production - Where to?"
Secondary Energy - Conversion and Delivery
Mr Brian Nye - Australian Institute of Petroleum
"Australia's Future Transport Fuel Mix Policy - Is
There One?"
Ms Julie Dill - Duke Energy International (Asia Pacific)
Seeing Energy in a new light
Mr Ted Scott - Stanwell Corporation
"Spirituality, Leadership and the Pursuit of Renewable Energy"
Mrs Barbara Hardy
"Hydrogen Energy: Past, Present and Future"
Demand Evolution - The Customer
Mr Sean Hanley - Toyota Motor Corporation Australia Ltd
"The Hybrid Journey"
Mr Greg Whitbourn - Integral Energy
"Likely Evolution Of Customer Energy Demand
In Australia To 2050"
Mr Gene McGlynn - Australian Greenhouse Office
Sustainability - Policy Directions
Mr Bob Alderson - Commonwealth Department of Science, Industry and
Resources
"Sustainability - Policy Complexities"
Mr Eriks Velins - Australian Petroleum Cooperative Research Centre
"National Energy Policy - the Generation of Technology
Options"
PETER MULLINS Chief Executive Officer Greenpeace Australia Pacific
"National Energy Policy: In the Hot Seat"
PROCEEDINGS
Conference proceedings can be purchased, mailto:aie@aie.org.au
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